Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-12 0.013885 0.015706 0.017677 0.019969 0.022563 0.025406 0.028762
2025-10-19 0.011211 0.013761 0.016754 0.020528 0.025165 0.030679 0.037746
2025-10-26 0.009446 0.012261 0.015753 0.020408 0.026458 0.034068 0.044389
2025-11-02 0.008249 0.011209 0.015051 0.020410 0.027707 0.037316 0.050972
2025-11-09 0.007204 0.010184 0.014207 0.020043 0.028316 0.039654 0.056433
2025-11-16 0.006562 0.009611 0.013876 0.020285 0.029704 0.043083 0.063620
2025-11-23 0.005913 0.008945 0.013322 0.020118 0.030438 0.045585 0.069624
2025-11-30 0.005537 0.008631 0.013233 0.020596 0.032126 0.049572 0.078135
2025-12-07 0.004943 0.007922 0.012478 0.019971 0.032044 0.050835 0.082503
2025-12-14 0.004500 0.007404 0.011962 0.019658 0.032395 0.052756 0.088022
2025-12-21 0.004061 0.006848 0.011332 0.019093 0.032269 0.053872 0.092268
2025-12-28 0.003913 0.006759 0.011446 0.019758 0.034220 0.058518 0.102804
2026-01-04 0.003722 0.006585 0.011414 0.020185 0.035827 0.062760 0.113098
2026-01-11 0.003560 0.006447 0.011430 0.020695 0.037621 0.067470 0.124646
2026-01-18 0.003313 0.006134 0.011112 0.020576 0.038266 0.070183 0.132771
2026-01-25 0.003108 0.005879 0.010874 0.020579 0.039123 0.073327 0.141939
2026-02-01 0.002871 0.005543 0.010458 0.020209 0.039242 0.075098 0.148613
2026-02-08 0.002736 0.005390 0.010371 0.020453 0.040547 0.079197 0.160156
2026-02-15 0.002561 0.005144 0.010085 0.020283 0.041023 0.081721 0.168747
2026-02-22 0.002477 0.005070 0.010126 0.020766 0.042834 0.087002 0.183390
2026-03-01 0.002275 0.004742 0.009640 0.020136 0.042319 0.087559 0.188218
2026-03-08 0.002124 0.004506 0.009319 0.019820 0.042425 0.089382 0.195865
2026-03-15 0.001960 0.004230 0.008895 0.019250 0.041946 0.089937 0.200791